Podcast Episode
The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed an 80% likelihood of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, with the probability climbing to near or above 90% that conditions will persist through at least November. NOAA placed the chance of emergence at 82% for May through July 2026, and a 96% chance it continues from December 2026 through February 2027.
Beneath the surface, conditions are already extraordinary. A massive Kelvin wave is carrying water as much as 7°C above average through the deep equatorial Pacific, a staggering anomaly for ocean depths where temperatures normally change slowly.
The developing pattern has already reshaped seasonal forecasts. NOAA issued a below-average Atlantic hurricane season outlook for 2026, projecting eight to 14 named storms, citing El Niño's tendency to suppress Atlantic activity through increased wind shear. Carbon Brief estimates 2026 could be the second-warmest year on record, with a 19% chance of surpassing 2024's all-time high. El Niño typically brings increased rainfall to parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, while driving drought in Australia, Indonesia, and South Asia.
NOAA Set to Confirm El Niño Onset, with Forecasters Warning of a Potentially Record-Breaking Event
June 10, 2026
0:00
5:20
Climate agencies including NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization say El Niño is forming in the Pacific, with an 80-90% chance of developing through late 2026. Forecasters warn it could become one of the most intense events in 140 years, with a 37% chance of going 'very strong' and pushing global temperatures into uncharted territory.
A Building Climate Event in the Pacific
Climate agencies and meteorologists are sounding the alarm as a potentially record-breaking El Niño takes shape in the Pacific Ocean. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expected to issue an updated assessment on 11 June that could formally confirm El Niño's onset, capping weeks of rising certainty among forecasters.The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed an 80% likelihood of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, with the probability climbing to near or above 90% that conditions will persist through at least November. NOAA placed the chance of emergence at 82% for May through July 2026, and a 96% chance it continues from December 2026 through February 2027.
How Strong Could It Get?
What concerns scientists most is the event's potential intensity. NOAA data shows a 37% chance of a 'very strong' El Niño by late 2026 or early 2027, with sea surface temperatures in the critical Niño 3.4 region potentially reaching 1.5°C or more above average. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has modelled scenarios where temperatures surge to 3°C above average by year's end, comparable to or exceeding records set in 1877 and 2015.Beneath the surface, conditions are already extraordinary. A massive Kelvin wave is carrying water as much as 7°C above average through the deep equatorial Pacific, a staggering anomaly for ocean depths where temperatures normally change slowly.
Global Consequences
UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a video statement on 2 June declaring, 'El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90 percent certainty,' warning it would 'pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.' WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo urged nations to prepare for worsening drought, heavy rainfall, and elevated heatwave risk on land and at sea.The developing pattern has already reshaped seasonal forecasts. NOAA issued a below-average Atlantic hurricane season outlook for 2026, projecting eight to 14 named storms, citing El Niño's tendency to suppress Atlantic activity through increased wind shear. Carbon Brief estimates 2026 could be the second-warmest year on record, with a 19% chance of surpassing 2024's all-time high. El Niño typically brings increased rainfall to parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, while driving drought in Australia, Indonesia, and South Asia.
Published June 10, 2026 at 2:26pm
