Podcast Episode
The study, led by an international team including engineer John Abraham of the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota, achieves something climate scientists have been chasing for decades: closing the so-called sea level budget gap. That gap is the stubborn discrepancy between how much the oceans are observed to be rising and how much can be explained by adding up known contributing factors like melting ice, warming water, and changes in land water storage.
When the team zoomed in specifically on the acceleration, ocean warming was again the dominant culprit, responsible for 41 percent of the increasing rate. Reduced land water storage contributed another 21 percent of the speed-up.
Together the findings paint a sobering picture: coastlines around the world are facing more water, sooner, than many planners assumed, and the trend will continue for decades regardless of how aggressively emissions are cut from here. The newly closed budget gap, however, gives policymakers something they have been missing, namely a confident, physically grounded explanation of what is driving the rise, which is essential for building flood defences and managing coastal retreat.
Sea Level Rise Has Nearly Doubled Since 1960, New Study Confirms
May 21, 2026
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A new study in Science Advances reveals global sea levels have risen at an average rate of around 2 mm per year since 1960, but that pace has nearly doubled in recent decades to almost 4 mm per year. Researchers have finally closed the long-standing 'sea level budget gap', confirming ocean thermal expansion as the single biggest driver. The findings sharpen the picture of accelerating coastal risk for communities worldwide.
Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating, and Scientists Finally Know Why
Global sea levels are not just rising, they are rising faster than they used to. New research published in Science Advances on Wednesday confirms that the average rate of sea level rise has nearly doubled since the 1960s, jumping from around 2 millimetres per year over the full 1960 to 2023 period to nearly 4 millimetres per year between 2005 and 2023.The study, led by an international team including engineer John Abraham of the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota, achieves something climate scientists have been chasing for decades: closing the so-called sea level budget gap. That gap is the stubborn discrepancy between how much the oceans are observed to be rising and how much can be explained by adding up known contributing factors like melting ice, warming water, and changes in land water storage.
Breaking Down the Drivers
The researchers attributed roughly 43 percent of sea level rise since 1960 to ocean thermal expansion, the phenomenon where seawater swells as it absorbs heat. Mountain glaciers contributed 27 percent, the Greenland Ice Sheet 15 percent, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet 12 percent. Shifts in how much water is stored on land, such as in lakes, aquifers, and reservoirs, made up the remaining 3 percent.When the team zoomed in specifically on the acceleration, ocean warming was again the dominant culprit, responsible for 41 percent of the increasing rate. Reduced land water storage contributed another 21 percent of the speed-up.
A Warning for Coastal Communities
The study lands alongside a separate analysis published in Nature earlier this year, which found that more than 90 percent of coastal assessments completed between 2009 and 2025 had underestimated current water levels, with some South-East Asian regions off by as much as 150 centimetres.Together the findings paint a sobering picture: coastlines around the world are facing more water, sooner, than many planners assumed, and the trend will continue for decades regardless of how aggressively emissions are cut from here. The newly closed budget gap, however, gives policymakers something they have been missing, namely a confident, physically grounded explanation of what is driving the rise, which is essential for building flood defences and managing coastal retreat.
Published May 21, 2026 at 8:17am
